Model reports, group deep-dives and value breakdowns for World Cup 2026. Every insight is built on probability, generated before kick-off and never revised after the fact.
Japan were supposed to lose this. Ranked 19th, missing Xavi Simons, against a Netherlands side with Virgil van Dijk, Frenkie de Jong and Cody Gakpo. The model said 46.3% Netherlands. Japan spent 45 minutes making that look about right. Then the second half happened. Three goals in 14 minutes, a 2–1 lead for the Dutch, and then — of course — Japan equalised in the 88th minute. Daichi Kamada. Header from a Junya Ito corner. 2–2. Dallas lost its mind.
Van Dijk headed in from Gravenberch's cross on 50 minutes — the big Liverpool defender doing what he does. Keito Nakamura equalised seven minutes later with a shot that deflected off Van Hecke past his Brighton teammate Verbruggen. Summerville restored the Dutch lead on 64 minutes with a curling effort that kissed the inside of the post — his first ever international goal, at the World Cup. Japan kept coming. Kamada found space at the back post. 2–2.
The model predicted Netherlands. Draw. The model was wrong on the outcome but the 46.3%/26.5%/27.2% split was honest — this was always going to be tight. Japan are now unbeaten in nine matches against European opponents. The Netherlands had 60% possession, six shots on target. Japan had Zion Suzuki. Group F is now Netherlands and Japan both on one point, Sweden and Tunisia to play later tonight. The group is completely open after matchday one.
All analysis · 13 pieces